日本精品中文字幕-日本精品在线视频-日本精品在线观看视频-日本精品在线观看-日本精品影院-日本精品一在线观看视频

Economic outlook optimistic for China
China Daily   |  Updated: 2019-02-25  |  Views: 5362

 

 

Economists believe the developed world’s growth prospects will worsen this year. In fact, on Feb 7, the European Commission further cut this years growth forecast for the European Union from 2 percent to 1.5 percent, and lowered the growth expectation for Germany from 1.8 percent to 1.1 percent.

As for the United Kingdom, uncertainty over Brexit has had a huge impact on its economic prospects. The Bank of England has cut its forecast for the UKs growth in 2019 from 1.7 percent to 1.2 percent. And on Feb 8, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its expectation for Australias growth rate till June 2019 from 3.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

The December spending for the United States, published on Feb 14, too, saw a 1.2 percent month-on-month drop, far lower than the 0.2 percent increase previously expected. Later, the Atlanta branch of the US Federal Reserve cut its estimate for the US fourth-quarter growth for 2018 from 2.7 percent to 1.5 percent.

US tax cuts drain its fiscal strength

These data and the countriesmacroeconomic conditions suggest the economic outlook of the developed world in the next few years will be one of low growth and low inflation. As for the USfiscal policy, its financial institutions say that although President Donald Trumps tax cuts added $25 billion to the economy last year (and will add another $40 billion this year), the effect will wear off in 2020 with the increase falling to $15 billion. Which means employment generation and economic growth driven by tax cuts will gradually subside in the US.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the expected interest rate hikes by the Fed in 2019 has slowed down due to the turmoil in the financial market and increasing uncertainty over the economic trend. Also, the USbalance sheet reduction, which many expect would tighten liquidity, is also likely to stop this year.

Paul R. Krugman and other US economists and some chief financial officers of US companies all expect the US to encounter a mild recession within two years. The problem is that the US administration lacks the necessary means to respond to such a development, as the Fed is said to have space for cutting interest rates by only about 250 basis points given that Trumps tax cuts have already overdrawn on the USfiscal strength.

And since 2020 is a US presidential election year, the Democrats who control the House of Representatives are not likely to approve of the Trump administrations fiscal expansion.

The room to adjust monetary and fiscal policies in other developed countries is too small to effectively respond to a new round of global slowdown. The worlds major developed countries, except the US, are yet to normalize their monetary policies and thus have little or no room for interest rate cuts in case of economic recession.

The high government deficits and national debts they accrued following the 2008 global financial crisis, which are difficult to clear within a short time, also mean limited room for fiscal expansion. Also, the high national debts are squeezing the space for private investment and corporate financing, which in turn is affecting their growth prospects.

China should optimize supply, stabilize demand

Based on these factors, the Chinese economy is likely to face a global macro environment of high debt, low inflation and low growth in the coming years. To maintain steady economic growth and employment, therefore, China should focus on optimizing supply and stabilizing domestic demand while constantly boosting economic vitality by deepening reform.

Besides, as global central banks shift to a more relaxed monetary policy, the pressure on the yuans exchange rate will continue to alleviate, meaning China has increasing room for monetary easing.

As for domestic economic conditions, the slower increase of the producer price index and consumer price index last month mean China is facing slackening demand but a certain level of resilience is emerging in its import and export data. Noncyclical consumption, too, indicates there is no need for excessive pessimism.

At present, Chinas policies mainly focus on several aspects, including expanding financial support for the real economy, as reflected in the huge increase in social financing in January after several reserve requirement ratio cuts last year. The positive "stable monetary and relaxed credit policy" momentum has been maintained at the beginning of this year. And proactive fiscal support policies, especially for infrastructure projects, have also been continuously implemented.

Moreover, tax cuts, including individual income tax reform, which were fully implemented in January, and several rounds of corporate tax and fee reductions, have been intensified or are in the pipeline.

It is evident therefore that the Chinese economy is far from undergoing a precipitous fall, and the employment level is stable. Policymakers are thus expected to weigh the effects of the combining policies already introduced, and interest cuts are not needed to stabilize its economic fundamentals. And while having rational expectations for a loose monetary policy, the market should focus more on the transmission efficiency of the adopted monetary policies.

 

The author is an associate professor at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. The views dont necessarily represent those of China Daily.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 猥琐对着美女飞机喷到脸上 | 亚洲小视频在线 | 国产东北3p真实在线456视频 | 色偷偷影院 | 日韩一区二区三区四区区区 | 亚洲天堂色图 | 国产精品色图 | 亚洲国产精品无圣光一区二区 | 关晓彤被草 | 草莓视频幸福宝 | 鸥美毛片 | 亚洲福利电影一区二区? | 极品主播的慰在线播放 | 久久久精品日本一区二区三区 | 婷综合 | 农村美女沟厕嘘嘘被偷看 | 大胆私拍模特国模377 | 男同志与动人物zozotv | 大肥臀风间由美 中文字幕 大东北chinesexxxx露脸 | 亚洲成在人线视频 | 精品久久久久免费极品大片 | 亚洲一区二区福利视频 | 午夜毛片在线观看 | 色中文字幕 | 国产午夜精品久久理论片小说 | 视频在线播放 | 黄www片| 亚洲精品国产综合久久一线 | 亚洲国产欧美在线人网站 | 91系列在线观看免费 | 国产清纯91天堂在线观看 | 99视频导航 | 久久久久久久伊人电影 | 国产综合成人久久大片91 | 四虎影院在线 | 欧美一区二区三区在线观看免费 | 国内外精品免费视频 | 色橹 | 亚洲久草在线 | 天若有情1992国语版完整版 | 国产一级一级一级成人毛片 |